31.10.2024 - As the United States prepares for its 2024 presidential election next month, all eyes are on the key swing states—which will likely determine the outcome as Kamala Harris currently leads Donald Trump by 2.5% in the latest national polls at the time of writing.
These battleground states, with their unpredictable voting patterns, make it hard to predict the winner in the US presidential election odds and can swing either Democratic or Republican—making them crucial in a close race like this year’s.
Here’s an overview of the main swing states and how they are currently polling according to the latest data.
Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes)
Pennsylvania has become a must-watch state in every election. Its diverse mix of urban, suburban and rural voters means the state can easily flip between the two major parties.
In 2016, Donald Trump narrowly won the ‘Keystone State,’ but it swung back to Joe Biden in 2020 as he guided the Democrats back to office.
Current polls suggest a close race again this year, with Trump holding a slight lead of just 0.5% over Harris.
Florida (30 electoral votes)
Traditionally a bellwether state, Florida has leaned more Republican in recent elections—appearing to become more in favour of Trump with each passing election.
Trump beat Hillary Clinton by little more than 1% in 2016 before improving his advantage four years ago.
The 3.2% victory over Biden could be bettered once again, as Trump leads Harris by a convincing 4.9% at the time of writing.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Wisconsin has historically been part of the so-called ‘Blue Wall’, which is why it came as such a shock when Trump defied the political betting odds to beat Clinton by a slim margin in 2016.
Biden swayed ‘The Badger State’ back in the Democrats’ favour four years, edging Trump to those crucial 10 electoral votes by just 0.63%.
Harris is currently leading in Wisconsin by roughly the same margin as Biden’s victory in 2020, but Trump has closed the gap significantly, having trailed by 3.8% at one stage in August.
Michigan (15 electoral votes)
Another battleground in the Midwest, Michigan has followed a similar pattern as Wisconsin. After flipping to Trump in 2016, it returned to the Democratic column in 2020, with Biden rather comfortably seeing off his rival.
Similar to Wisconsin, Harris held an advantage of almost 3.5% over Trump in August. However, the Republican leader has closed to within 0.7%.
Arizona (11 electoral votes)
Arizona has emerged as a key swing state in recent elections. Once a Republican stronghold, it flipped to Biden in 2020, driven by changing demographics.
The 80-year-old won Arizona by just 0.4% four years ago, and Trump could be on course to regain the vote of the Grand Canyon State as he leads Harris by 1.4%.
We’ve already seen how quickly Arizona can change its mind, though. Harris came from 2.3% behind in August to lead the polls by 1.4% before losing ground to Trump once again.
Georgia (16 electoral votes)
Georgia is another state that has shifted dramatically in 2020 when Biden became the first Democrat to win there since 1992.
‘The Peach State’ is incredibly close at the time of writing, as Trump leads Harris by a marginal 0.9% in an ever-changing poll.
North Carolina (16 electoral votes)
North Carolina has become a Trump stronghold throughout his political career, winning over the state in both 2016 and 2020.
The Businessman is on course for the hat-trick in the ‘Tar Heel’ state, pulling clear of Harris in the early stages of October and opening up a lead of 1% having led by just 0.1% at the end of last month.
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*Polls are correct at the time of writing.
